Resolving the Qatar crisis

Recently the gas-rich state of Qatar has dominated world news due to a spat with eight other Middle Eastern states; a cessation of diplomatic ties set off a ripple of after-effects and neighboring countries found themselves taking sides in the crisis. Perceptibly, this distribution into "camps" carries a high-risk potential of destabilizing the entire region.

Breaking the stale-mate is the only viable option. Arbitration by major powers like the U.S. and China is expected in this fast developing "complex situation" as General James Mattis describes it. On China's part, it has no intention of taking sides and would like to see a diplomatic resolution of the issue, evident from Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hua Chunying's response in which she hoped that "relevant countries can properly resolve differences through dialogue and consultation, uphold unity and jointly promote regional peace and stability."

Trade initiatives have the potential to serve as common ground for resolving the Gulf dispute. Maintenance of peace and stability accords with regional and international interests as well, as pointed out by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi to the Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. The Chinese Foreign Ministry further cited him as having said that, "China upholds that the relevant countries should appropriately resolve the disputes between them."

In recent years, China's investments, energy deals and trade cooperation in the region has greatly increased, partially because of the Belt and Road Initiative.

As far as the U.S. is concerned, one of its largest military bases in the Middle East, Al Udeid, is located in Qatar as well as the forward headquarters of the United States Central Command, or CENTCOM, which controls U.S. operations in the region. There seems no likelihood of the U.S. moving these bases.

The U.S. offered to mediate between both parties to end tensions in the region very early in the crisis. President Trump had personally conversed with the Emir of Qatar, offering even the White House as a common venue for mediation between the two parties; the press readout announced, "The president emphasized the importance of all countries in the region working together to prevent the financing of terrorist organizations and stop the promotion of extremist ideology."

Stressing the need for Gulf countries to work in tandem to effectively combat regional terror threats and support U.S. military operations, the White House said, "The president reiterated that a united Gulf Cooperation Council and a strong United States-Gulf Cooperation Council partnership are critical to defeating terrorism and promoting regional stability. The president has offered to help the parties resolve their differences, including through a meeting at the White House if necessary."

In a recent development, the U.S. has also sold $12 billion worth of F15 fighter jets to Qatar. Mattis signed the deal with the Qatari defence minister, this being taken as a reassuring signal by Qatar as well as an enhancement in security cooperation with the U.S. Meanwhile, two U.S. warships have also arrived at Doha, this was described by Qatar state media as a "joint exercise" with the Qatar navy.

Among other countries mediating in the Gulf crisis, Pakistan, undertook a diplomatic initiative. The army chief, General Bajwa, and PM Nawaz met King Salman in Jeddah to urge an early resolution of the Gulf impasse. Attempting to defuse the tensions, their next visits will be to Kuwait, Qatar and Turkey.

Pakistan may have added leverage as its armed forces are not only part of the Saudi military alliance, it is also headed by the ex-army chief, General Sharif. Recent re-ordering of the Saudi succession line has positive implications in that the new Crown Prince Salman has innovative plans such as the Saudi Vision 2030 and Aramco going public, but it is also perceived as hard-line on the Qatar issue so the matter urgently needs mediation.

Likewise, efforts are also being made by Kuwait and Morocco. Ending the rift is the best option as the entire region is at risk of getting destabilized if the dispute drags on or gets violent unnecessarily. There can be no military solution to this diplomatic crisis.

Qatar has the world's third largest proven natural gas reserves and the entire region stands to benefit multilaterally from the heightened trade connectivity once the Belt and Road Initiative is in full swing. Lying in close proximity, the Gulf States are a family with numerous inter-links. Doing away with distrust would further the regional dynamics.

In the meantime, the Qatar blockade disrupted the travel plans of many mainland tourists. A longer drawn out crisis could impact regional trade, investment and infrastructure planning. For the time being, the diplomatic crisis has not affected FIFA plans; the soccer governing body maintains that it is in touch with concerned authorities in Qatar, regarding the 2022 World Cup event; and construction of the stadiums for the planned tournament remains underway.

Sabena Siddiqui (Twitter: @sabena_siddiqi) is a foreign affairs journalist and lawyer based in Pakistan.

Published on China.org.cn