#NorthKorea : Clear and Present Danger

North Korea is fast developing as the flash-point of conflict on the global scene. The U.S. installed the highly advanced ‘hit to kill’ 100% efficient THAAD missile defence system in South Korea recenttly as a counter-measure against North Korean missile capability. North Korea has become the Trump administration’s top foreign policy priority as Pyongyang is approaching its target capability to hit the U.S. with a nuclear weapon. This milestone is to be achieved during Trump’s four year presidential term.

Thus, the U.S. shifted its focus from Syria after the Idlib strikes, as North Korean media reported a sixth nuclear test was to be carried out. The aircraft carrier strike group Carl Vinson is headed off to the Korean peninsula presently in a pro-active show of force. Risks of a military clash never ran this high since Pyongyang’s first nuclear test in 2006, the installation of THAAD across the border and reports regarding a highly skilled US Navy Seal team undergoing training in South Korea may have been influencing factors. As of now, North Korea has ratcheted up the rhetoric considerably with warnings of a nuclear strike in case of any U.S. aggression, in any case it perpetually remains in war mode as far as South Korea and the U.S. are concerned since 1950-1953.

North Korea’s official newspaper Rodong Sinmun declared, “Our revolutionary strong army is keenly watching every move by enemy elements with our nuclear sight focused on the US invasionary bases not only in South Korea and the Pacific operation theatre but also in the US mainland.”

Consequently, China finds itself in the role of reluctant arbitrator amidst all these happenings as the Xi-Trump meet concluded only recently, the THAAD issue could not be discussed sufficiently as the Syria strikes took place almost immediately. It remains to be seen whether the strikes meant more as a warning to North Korea to back off. Bilateral relations between China and the U.S. have progressed and President Trump would like China to mediate in exchange for better trade ties.

Even after his return, President Xi received a call from Trump to discuss the North Korea ‘menace’ at length. These improved communication lines are a welcome sign between the two global powers. President Xi called for a peaceful resolution of the matter, whilst reiterating that China is “committed to the target of denuclearization on the peninsula, safeguarding peace and stability on the peninsula, and advocates resolving problems through peaceful means.” He also said that China would maintain communication and co-ordination regarding the ongoing situation with the U.S.

China has been trying to calm down the situation and ostensibly showed its displeasure to North Korea by sending coal ships back under UN sanctions, analysts feel that China would like North Korea to halt its nuclear and missile activities under the circumstances ‘for its own security’, especially after the 59 Tomahawk missile strike in Syria by the Trump administration. There have also been speculations in Chinese media whether Beijing should consider cutting off oil exports with N.Korea in case it continues with its provocative posturing.

 Lately, President Trump has also been tweeting the U.S. could solve the North Korea “problem” without China if needed. His recent remarks on the issue have also been quite direct and definite“I don’t talk about the military,” he said. “We are sending an Armada, very powerful. We have submarines, very powerful. Far more powerful than the aircraft carrier, that I can tell you. And we have the best military people. And I will say this: He is doing the wrong thing.”

The USS Carl Vinson’s presence in the Korean peninsula could be to keep Pyongyang at bay but it is a rapidly unpredictable situation, considering that President Trump does not like to show his cards, he just says: “You never know you never know.”

In any case, President Trump feels that he has “very good bonding” with President Xi, and maybe the matter is solved with dialogue. Needless to say, President Trump would involve more nations in tackling the issue if no breakthrough happens. Another wild possibility is that the U.S. will go directly ‘for the kill’ and carry out an unexpected pre-emptive strike, placing its allies Japan and South Korea in a very unenviable and vulnerable position as North Korea could retaliate as it is very much nuclear and no cakewalk.

However, U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis affirms that the deployment is not for any specific purpose but is a matter of prudence. The USS Carl Vinson nuclear-powered aircraft carrier is accompanied by two destroyers and a cruiser, such a strike group is bound to include submarines as well. At a Pentagon news conference, Mattis said, "She is just on her way up there because that is where we thought it was most prudent to have her at this time.”

Meanwhile, there are unconfirmed reports of U.S. troops taking part in “ground, air, naval and special operations” in several joint and combined field training operations” which involve up to 17,000 troops.

Published on China.0rg.cn