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Showing posts from August, 2018

A BRICST in the making

At the recent BRICS summit, Turkish President Erdogan urged the member countries to facilitate his country's admission to the group, saying: "If you take us in, the name of the platform would become BRICST."  With substantial economic potential, the five countries forming BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) presently account for 23 percent of the world's GDP, and the IMF expects this to rise to 26.8 percent by the year 2022. Thus, it's no surprise that more countries wish to join the bloc.  Inviting leaders of various emerging economies for top-level talks preceding any extension, the summit host, South Africa, had arranged a specific meeting to create an effective mechanism for cooperation.  Aiming to diversify Turkey's options, Erdogan wishes to extend links and increase leverage beyond the West, even though being perceived as part of the Western bloc has long provided it with relevance as well as an economic cachet.  Currently fa

Iran’s struggle for existence in the face of new sanctions

Implementing a financial package just in time before the first round of US sanctions hit its economy, Iran has tried to halt a currency free-fall with measures to control allocation of foreign currency and keep it strictly for essential imports. Preparing for the worst, people have also started  hoarding gold causing high prices and an insufficient supply. Hoping to continue with the JCPOA nuclear deal if its demands of continued oil exportation and access to the global banking system are accepted, Iran is trying to survive. Making things worse, unemployment and the crunch of inflation is beginning to hit the  middle class and discontent  has erupted on the streets even as the Iranian rial sinks. Seeking to stem “malign activity” by Iran in a decisive manner, since the previous deal was  “decaying and rotten” , Pompeo has declared that the US requires “enormous change” in Iran if it wants to escape sanctions. Abandoning the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) nuclear dea

The Russia-Pakistan paradigm

Following a series of high profile visits in the past two weeks, Moscow and Islamabad have upgraded their bilateral ties just as a new government is poised to come into power in Pakistan.  The Russian Ambassador to Pakistan Alexey Dedov recently carried a special message from President Putin to Pakistan's new Prime Minister-elect Imran Khan conveying "wishes to improve relations with Pakistan…(and) foster economic cooperation and people-to-people contact as well."  In response, Khan also expressed his keen interest in enhancing ties with Russia. Sharing many objectives, both nations are focused on regional peace and have a similar diplomatic stance on important issues, such as the U.S. decision to abandon the JCPOA nuclear deal with Iran, containing terrorism in Afghanistan to stabilize it for advantageous regional trade and smooth completion of China's Belt and Road Initiative.  Strengthening Track II diplomacy, encouraging academic and cultural ties, as we

Renegotiating Iran’s Nuclear Deal

Preparing for the long haul of  U.S. sanctions ahead , Iran is trying to insulate itself and keep a “resistance economy” afloat. Already having faced the first wave of sanctions covering financial transactions, gold sales and automobiles, Iran will soon be hit by the second wave on November 4 targeting the oil, gas, shipping and petrochemical sector. Proactively, a financial package has been introduced by Tehran to contain the currency free-fall with measures to control the allocation of foreign currency and keep it strictly for essential imports. As the deficit continues, hoarding of gold has caused higher prices and an insufficient supply but there is no panic. In retrospect, Iran has experienced economic sanctions since 1979, followed by even more stringent UN conditions from 2010 to 2015. Definitely having been a survivor in the past, Iran is quite adept at taking preventive measures, while some facts are also working in its favour. First, from the legal aspect, Iran has more

A New Pakistan Emerging After Election

Casting their ballots for Pakistan's second consecutive democratic transfer of power, nearly 106 million registered voters participated in the July 25 general election.  Winning big in the largest province, Punjab, is vital for any party wanting to form a government at the center, as it contains 60 percent of the total electorate. Registering an overall 50 to 55 percent voter turnout, as in the 2013 vote, one new feature was the 22 million young, new voters, of which 16 percent were under the age of 25.  Achieving 137 seats is mandatory if a party is to earn the right to nominate a candidate for Prime Minister. Before the election, a hung parliament was predicted; however, now it seems there will be a clear majority. Maintaining a commanding lead with more than half the total vote counted at the time of writing, cricketer-turned-politician, Imran Khan is all set to lead the nation. In his first post-election address he pledged following a program of austerity while eliminat