Skip to main content

Posts

Showing posts from October, 2018

BRI and the Polar Silk Road

s the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) completes its first five years, not much is known about its forays into previously inaccessible parts of the Arctic region. Surprisingly, having made some headway there and actually made some sea- routes operational, China’s exploration and development of the Arctic may also be another indicator of progress. Much less publicized than other aspects of the BRI, it is a good time for an update about the Arctic territory and its difficult shipping routes, which used to remain under ice for the better part of the year. Known as the Polar Silk Road, this part is usually perceived as an “extension” of the BRI, and development plans for this route were first referred to in the BRI papers as the “Vision for Maritime Co-operation.” Catching people’s attention, this unusual project came at a time when the world started experiencing climate change, and global warming melted the ice in the polar regions. It has been these modified temperatures that made t

Economic growth at the expense of punishing IMF package for Pakistan

Even as Pakistan tries to find a way out of its financial crisis, there is a lot of discussion regarding the pros and cons of the options available. Some days ago, Pakistan’s Minister of Finance, Asad Umar announced that Pakistan could be taking a $12 billion bailout package from the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) for three years, as well as $5 billion from the Asian Development Bank and World Bank. Having extremely high deficits around 6.6 percent of the GDP and fast depleting foreign exchange reserves, such an arrangement would get the economy through the immediate balance of payments crisis at hand. However, it is widely expected that the IMF delegation arriving on November 7th would want to place special conditions and get some policies changed. Since a while, the IMF has been warning Pakistan that its financial risks have increased and need regulation as its medium-term debt repayment capacity is reducing due to current account and budget deficits.

Imran Khan Takes on Corruption in Pakistan

Throughout his campaigns over the years, Imran Khan, now Pakistan’s prime minister, has always commented on his intention to carry out an intensive anti-corruption drive once in power. Pledging “strict accountability” and a crackdown against “the people who looted this country,” Khan visualized an extensive anti-corruption campaign. Finally, with his recent election, the time seems to have arrived, as unprecedented measures are being taken along with the announcement of a new “whistleblower law” to help end financial crimes. For starters, an  Assets Recovery Unit  (ARU) has been established with its headquarters based in the prime minister’s office in Islamabad to retrieve monies or hidden assets overseas. Comprised of bank officials as well as representatives from all the government intelligence agencies, this unit aims to target high-level corruption in the initial phase. Getting details of illegal foreign bank accounts within the country, the ARU has special powers to access a

Thucydides Trap and trickle-down effect of US-China ties

Managing the world’s most important geopolitical relationship is not an easy task, especially when US-China ties have a global influence and trickle-down effect to all their allies. In recent years, the historical Thucydides’s Trap Theory has been used quite often to describe the US-China equation and its risks. Reminding world leaders that war always remains more likely than peace and it is wise to exercise restraint constantly, this theory retains some relevance. Analyzing the background of the ancient Greek Peloponnesian war, Thucydides, a 5th century BCE historian, had concluded that it became inevitable as, “It was the rise of Athens, and the fear that this instilled in Sparta, that made war inevitable.” ALSO READ:  Why China’s Belt and Road Initiative is more than just new ‘great game’ Being the dominant power, Sparta had pre-emptively attacked the rising power, Athens, even though it may not have been a real threat. At the end of the day, it was the dominant Sparta

China-ASEAN share the same vision

The Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), founded in 1967, now comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. For the last nine years, China has been its largest trading partner, while providing the third largest market for ASEAN; the two-way trade volume is now about US$500 billion, six times what it was when the China-ASEAN strategic partnership was initiated in 2003.  Over the last 15 years, mutual investment has totaled more than $200 billion, while 400,000 enterprises have been established through direct investment, and 300, 000 jobs created. Launching the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, China made sizable investments in infrastructure to revive and expand economic ties along the old Silk Road and beyond. In the process, it also helped in reducing the massive infrastructure development gaps across the two continents of Asia and Africa.  Boosting industrial development in the ASEAN countries was al

Gwadar Port can be advantageous to Saudi Vision 2030

Undertaking his first official overseas trip, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan recently visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This trip is seen as the start of a new foreign policy to further Pakistan's core interests, and the upbeat mood augured well for the potential clinching of bilateral economic agreements. Following the visit, there have been solid indications that Saudi Arabia is interested in investing in the port city of Gwadar and other projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Having scheduled a visit to Pakistan in October this year, a high-level Saudi economic delegation headed by the Energy and Treasury Ministers is expected to finalize the agreements.  Initially in 2017, the Saudi Arabian envoy to Pakistan had expressed interest in investing in the Gwadar port and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It is quite beneficial for Saudi Arabia to participate in the mega-project as it helps link its economy with China's and facilitates

Five Years of the Belt and Road Initiative

Established 2000 years ago by Chinese imperial envoy Zhang Qian, the ancient Silk Route linked China to Central Asia and the Middle East in the days of the Han Dynasty. In the modern world today, the same Silk Route has been revived in the form of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Marking five years since China’s Belt and Road Initiative was launched, this year is not only a milestone, it is also a juncture to take stock of the mega-project and assess its progress and impact. Generally seen as the most ambitious geostrategic initiative of this century, the BRI is mostly misunderstood and taken as a threat or a new ‘great game’. Basically, it is an investment project affecting two-thirds of the global population and the aim is to provide the necessary infrastructure to enable a free flow of logistics from some of the most under-developed and remote parts of the world to more developed countries and specially built economic zones. Bridging the infrastructure gap in les

Is China’s BRI idea beginning to catch the world’s attention?

Representing 25 percent of the global population and generating one third of the world’s GDP, China-European Union (EU) relations happen to be next in global significance only to China-US relations. Bilateral trade has grown to such an extent that the EU is China’s biggest trade partner while China is the EU’s second largest trade partner after the United States as it has invested around  $235 billion in the EU countries  whilst slowing down its US investment to just $103 billion in 2015-2016. Having had several opportunities for bilateral co-operation, it has been a viable and productive partnership. For starters, the EU countries had joined up the Asian Infrastructure Bank (AIIB) in 2015 even though the US showed reluctance. In return, China also joined the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) so working together is not something new in their bilateral relations. Consequently, it was considered likely that the EU would become part of China’s mega-projec